GitLab

Our brand-new Deepseek-based AI says "Chiefs vs Eagles? ... How Predictable"

Super Bowl forecasts from our brand-new Deepseek-based AI trained to be much better at forecasting

Share this post

No one can anticipate the future but at Lightning Rod Labs we are training AI to give it its finest shot. With approximately date news and a little however spirited 14 Billion criterion model, our AI is boldly forecasting the unforeseeable. Join us as we attempt to respond to mankind's toughest questions.

Super Bowl Sunday is almost upon us and, simply as two years back, we have the Chiefs against the Eagles. The spread presently sits at Chiefs -1.5 with an over-under of 48.5. While the statistics are well studied, there remain lots of pressing concerns that are less easy to select. Our company, Lightning arrester Labs, has been mining questions from places like polymarket.com and training a large language model to be better at predicting the future (and have actually seen some intriguing enhancements - research study paper inbound). This week we turned its cold, determining eye at the Super Bowl to see if it can provide us some insight into the finer points of what we can expect this Sunday.

For more updates from the AI world sign up for my newsletter!

Background

Our AI is a 14 billion criterion model which is actually on the smaller side. (Some estimates suggest ChatGPT has 1.8 TRILLION criteria and trained using 8000 H100 GPUs. We utilized 8.) Additionally, its understanding cutoff is from many months ago so we have actually constructed an "agentic pipeline" to do news retrieval, summarization, and ranking. With each concern we supply the news and watch as the AI reasons its method through unknown territory to make its best forecast possible.

And Now ... The Important Questions

We posed the following concerns to our AI and determined its action. While we have seen forecast enhancements from our training, utilize these quotes for prop wagering at your own danger.

Will Travis Kelce propose to Taylor Swift after the Super Bowl?

AI Final Prediction: 5% opportunity

Therefore it seems this Sunday will not be a romantic one. Our AI believes Taylor and Travis' relationship is rock strong, but a little too private for a post-Super Bowl proposition. Plus got ta consider if the Chiefs lose. That would be an awkward proposal ...

First, I'll take a look at the key points from the posts. Travis has actually remained in a relationship with Taylor given that 2023. He's a huge football star, and she's been helpful of his career, attending his video games. They appear to have a strong, public relationship, and Taylor has even invited her buddies and family to the Super Bowl, revealing her dedication.

Some fans are thrilled, while others, particularly Swifties, are a bit uncertain, particularly given comments Travis made about Donald Trump attending the Super Bowl. That has triggered some Swifties to question how appropriate Travis is for Taylor. However, the couple appears to be keeping their relationship personal and not dealing with the speculation straight.

I think the essential points are the speculation and his evasive responses. While he's plainly in a relationship and the Super Bowl is an essential occasion, the odds and his actions recommend it's more of a possibility instead of a certainty. I 'd estimate a low probability, perhaps around 5%, thinking about all aspects.

Will the Eagles do more than 5 "tush-pushes" during the extremely bowl?

AI Final Prediction: 79% opportunity

No Jason Kelce hasn't stopped the Eagles from using their signature "tush-push" relocation, now its simply a different front-tush being pushed. Will an AI comprehend what a "tush-push" is? Does an AI even know what a "tush" is? Will it consider that the Chiefs stopped (debate aside) Josh Allen's similar attempts? Looks like our AI believes they'll be utilizing Jalen Hurts 600-pound squat and strong legs and lower body (Does our AI have a crush on Jalen Hurts?) time and again during this game.

Alright, I'm trying to figure out the likelihood that the Eagles will do more than 5 "tush-pushes" during the Super Bowl. First, I need to understand exactly what a "tush-push" is. From the short articles, it seems like it's a technique where the quarterback, in this case Jalen Hurts, utilizes his legs and lower body strength to press off protectors. It's compared to pushing a heavy box, so it's a physical maneuver that needs strength and method.

Article 3 dives into the physics of the "tush-push." It explains how Hurts utilizes his leg strength, having actually done a 600-pound squat, to perform the move. The post discusses that the Eagles have a 90% success rate with this technique, which is quite high. ... I also require to think of the defensive techniques of the Chiefs. If the Chiefs are aware of the Eagles' "tush-push" technique, they might change their defense accordingly, which could either increase or garagesale.es reduce the variety of times the Eagles utilize it.

Considering that more than five appears like a substantial number but possible given their confidence, I would estimate a likelihood around 60-70% possibility. This accounts for their preparation, self-confidence in the method, and the probability that they'll use it several times, specifically if it's efficient early on.

Will Kendrick Lamar diss Donald Trump during the halftime show performance?

AI Final Prediction: 65% opportunity

While our AI may not be like us when it pertains to consciousness, a soul, or any physical manifestation, it certainly has opinions on . It was quite uncertain, waffling back and forth, however in the end it believes Kendrick isn't going to pull back from a fight.

From the short articles, I see that Kendrick Lamar has a history of criticizing Trump. He's done this in his tunes, like "The Heart Part 4," and even made a statement during a previous halftime program when Trump existed in 2018. That seems considerable due to the fact that it reveals he's done it before, so perhaps he'll do it again. But wait, looking at more current posts, it mentions that Lamar is moving far from political statements and focusing more on individual expression. That might imply he's less likely to attend to Trump this time.

However, he's likewise involved in a fight with Drake, which may offer him factors to make some public declarations, wiki.lafabriquedelalogistique.fr even if they're not political. Another point is the legal problems surrounding his track "Not Like Us." There's a character assassination fit from Drake, so perhaps he bewares about consisting of any controversial songs in the efficiency. But given that he won the Grammys for that track, he may still want to perform it, even if it's uncertain.

Considering Trump is attending this Super Bowl, which is a high-profile occasion, Lamar might feel obliged to make a declaration. However, the NFL tends to prevent political statements throughout the halftime program, so there's a risk that such material may be restricted or softened.

On the other hand, Lamar has a track record of making strong carry on huge stages. He's the very first solo rap act to headline the halftime show, which might give him more innovative freedom. Plus, his past habits recommends he's not shy about expressing his viewpoints, even in public efficiencies.

But I also keep in mind reading that Lamar expressed fatigue about criticizing Trump, comparing it to beating a dead horse. That might indicate he's less encouraged to raise Trump this time around, specifically if he's focusing on his feud with Drake. In summary, weighing all factors-past habits, existing shifts in focus, legal problems, and the event's context-the possibility appears to be moderately high, perhaps around 65%.

Will Andy Reid consume a cheeseburger on screen after the incredibly bowl?

AI Final Prediction: 25% chance

Lets be truthful, Andy Reid loves cheeseburgers. And who does not? Will the reality that our AI has never ever tasted the juicy deliciousness of a fresh hamburger taint its prediction? Appears like theres rather of a possibility that if the chiefs taste victory, Andy will taste Angus Beef.

From the short articles, I see that Terry Bradshaw made a joke about Andy Reid eating a cheeseburger throughout a Super Bowl event. Bradshaw later on said sorry for the joke, saying he didn't indicate to cause offense and that he in fact discovered it amusing himself. Reid seemed to take it in stride, which may suggest he's the type to laugh it off rather than getting upset.

Looking at the articles, it discusses that Andy Reid is a food lover and likes cheeseburgers. There's a post specifically about his love for food, which suggests that he's a person who delights in eating, especially with his group. So, if there were strategies to commemorate after the Super Bowl, it's possible he would partake in a cheeseburger, particularly if the situation is on screen for an event.

Will the opening coin toss in the Super Bowl be tails?

AI Final Prediction: 50% chance

"Tails never fails?" You can't trick the devices !! Betters leading up to the superbowl have been predicting the coin toss and 53% are forecasting heads due to it being heads 3 of the last 4 super bowls. Potentially financially rewarding? Maybe. Statistically incongruent? Certainly. Luckily our AI can't be tricked and thinks anything can occur when that coin goes in the air.

Okay, so I'm attempting to figure out the likelihood that the opening coin toss in the Super Bowl will be tails. I understand that a coin toss is supposed to be 50/50, but there's some historical information that may affect this prediction.

First, I review the posts supplied. They all point out the historical data of Super Bowl coin tosses. It appears like tails has actually shown up more frequently than heads traditionally. Specifically, in 58 Super Bowls, tails has actually been the result 30 times, which has to do with 52%, while heads has been 28 times, which has to do with 48%. So, based simply on history, tails has a slight edge, but it's not a substantial difference.

However, I bear in mind that the outcome of a coin toss is normally thought about random. The small historical edge for tails could be due to chance. But when making predictions, sometimes individuals weigh historical data even if it's not statistically substantial. So, I need to think about whether this historical bias needs to affect the possibility.

After believing about it, I choose that while the historical information reveals a slight choice for tails, it's not statistically considerable enough to move the likelihood far from 0.5. So, I'll choose 0.5 as the likelihood, acknowledging that the minor historic edge exists however does not override the fact that each toss is an independent 50/50 event.

Will the referees cheat to assist the Chiefs win the Super Bowl?

AI Final Prediction: 1% chance

We get it, you believe the refs like Patrick Mahomes and are gon na help him win. If I wasn't born and raised in Kansas City (I assure we didn't inject pro-Kansas City training data) I would probably believe the exact same. BUT, its official now since our AI states the opportunities are just 1% (hmmmm ... 1% is still sort of high when it pertains to scams on a nationwide scale). Appears like the Chiefs will need to win fair and square!

AI Reasoning:

Okay, so I'm trying to determine the possibility that the referees will cheat to help the Chiefs win the Super Bowl. Hmm, that's a quite major allegation. Let me break this down. First, I'm seeing a great deal of short articles that discuss conspiracy theories suggesting referees are prejudiced towards the Chiefs. People are indicating some questionable contact recent games, particularly the AFC National championship. That does seem to spark some uncertainty. I can see why fans might get annoyed when their group loses due to what they view as bad officiating.

But then I read that the NFL Referees Association and the Commissioner, Roger Goodell, have both dismissed these claims as "outrageous" and "ludicrous." They state there's no proof of organized bias. That's a strong declaration from individuals in charge. If they're rejecting it, it might mean there's no real basis or they would have addressed it in a different way if there was some fact to it.

Looking at the posts, several sources like [1], [5], [6], [7], [8], and [9] all report that the authorities are against these claims, and some even called them insulting. They likewise pointed out that statistical analysis does not show any pattern of favoritism towards the Chiefs. For instance, Mike Pereira from FOX said information shows the Chiefs have actually been penalized more considering that 2022. That's intriguing due to the fact that if they were getting unique treatment, you might anticipate less penalties, right?

...

So, putting it all together, the probability that referees will cheat to help the Chiefs win the Super Bowl is most likely very low. Maybe not zero because you can't dismiss every possibility, but exceptionally unlikely.

Summary

There you have it everyone, is it even worth watching the video game still? I guess I'll need to wait and see how the video game ends up before we unleash this upon the stock exchange. Fingers crossed for a great game! And hey, if it ends up our AI was incorrect about everything, at least it can gain from this.